[Video] Kiwibank's Chief Economist Jarrod Kerr provides his economic update

Jarrod Kerr from Kiwibank presented a positive outlook for 2025 and beyond, expecting interest rates to fall, asset markets to rise, and inflation to return to 2%. He also discussed the challenges of housing affordability, climate change, and geopolitical risks. He explained the rationale for expecting the RBNZ to cut rates by 150 to 200 basis points by the end of next year, and the implications for mortgage rates, term deposit rates, and the shape of the yield curve. He also answered questions about the impact of government debt and international investors on the bond market. Jarrod forecasted a recovery in house prices and investor appetite next year, driven by lower interest rates and policy changes. He also highlighted the risks of flooding and insurance for some properties, and the need to increase the supply of affordable homes. Jarrod showed the charts of the record-high migration inflows and the rebound in tourism arrivals, mainly from Australia. He also discussed the types of migrants and workers that have come in, and the possibility of some outflows due to lack of jobs. He also points out the sharp decline in business and consumer confidence, reflecting the recessionary conditions and the impact of higher interest rates and inflation. He argued that rate cuts would boost confidence and fuel growth over 2025.